Does Digital Retail Have What It Takes to Win Black Friday?
Physical stores have the advantage of experience. Shoppers can see, touch and try products, discover something unexpected and connect with brands in ways that a screen can’t always replicate. But digital retail has an advantage of its own. It can reach shoppers before they even start browsing, understand what they’re looking for and influence their purchasing decisions with greater precision.
As Black Friday becomes increasingly competitive, could smarter use of data, personalisation and digital engagement be what gives online retail the edge? We spoke to experts across Smollan to explore how changing shopper behaviour, smarter promotional strategies and digital insights could help brands win this Black Friday.
Shoppers are getting smarter. Are promotions keeping up?
Black Friday has become Black November. With promotions stretching across the month, shoppers have more time to research products, compare prices and question whether a deal offers genuine value.
For retailers, bigger discounts no longer guarantee greater impact.
“Black Friday has become Black November, and shoppers are becoming harder to impress. They look beyond the discount to see whether they are getting genuine value. For retailers, the opportunity is to move away from a one-size-fits-all approach and give shoppers a reason to engage with their offers.” Says Gabriella Greyling, Senior Key Account Manager – Advanced Analytics, Smollan.
Research shared by Greyling highlights a gap between shopper expectations and the reality of Black Friday promotions. Consumers are increasingly questioning the value of advertised savings, with many checking regular prices before deciding whether to buy.
The challenge for brands is clear. A discount might attract attention, but it doesn’t necessarily give shoppers a compelling reason to choose one brand over another.
This is where digital retail can make a difference. By understanding shopping habits, preferences and purchase history, brands can move beyond blanket promotions to offers that speak to individual needs. A loyal customer, a first-time buyer and someone who hasn’t purchased in months may all need a different reason to engage. The opportunity isn’t simply to promote more. It’s to make every interaction more relevant.
More sales. But is it really growth?
Black Friday can deliver impressive sales numbers. But a surge in orders doesn’t always tell the full story.
Are promotions attracting new customers, encouraging existing shoppers to spend more or simply bringing forward purchases that would have happened anyway?
Analysis shared by Julius Weber, Head of Digital Growth, Digital Commerce, Germany, shows how differently major promotional events can perform across categories. During one major sales event, daily orders in the vitamins category tripled, yet the proportion of new customers fell from 54% to 31%. In the supplements category, daily orders increased by 50%, while the share of new customers rose from 38% to 62%. Both categories experienced higher sales, but the results tell very different stories about the types of shoppers responding to promotions.
The same challenge applies when consumers stock up on everyday essentials. A shopper buying three months’ worth of household products in November might look like a Black Friday success. But if they don’t purchase again until February, has the promotion created additional demand or simply brought future sales forward at a lower margin? For retailers, understanding that difference is critical.
More orders don’t automatically mean more customers, greater profitability or sustainable growth.
Digital retail provides an opportunity to look beyond the headline sales numbers. By analysing who is purchasing, what they’re buying and how their behaviour changes over time, brands can make smarter decisions about where promotional investment will have the greatest impact.
The question is no longer simply how much to discount, but what the promotion is designed to achieve.
The digital advantage: Better data, smarter decisions
Digital retail offers brands something far more valuable than another channel to advertise discounts: the ability to understand shopper behaviour and turn those insights into action. Rather than treating every customer the same, brands can identify different shopper needs and tailor their approach accordingly.
A loyal customer already planning to purchase may not need a significant discount. Someone who hasn’t bought in six months might respond to a targeted incentive. A first-time shopper exploring a new category may need relevant recommendations or reassurance before making a purchase.
The opportunity is to use data to shape the offer itself, not simply the message promoting it.
But that starts with understanding what success looks like. Is the goal to attract new customers, win back lapsed shoppers, increase basket spend, encourage category trial or clear excess stock? Each requires a different strategy.
Digital channels give brands the ability to segment audiences, personalise offers, test different approaches and measure how shoppers respond. And when those insights are connected to commercial performance, retailers can better understand which activities are genuinely driving growth. Clicks, traffic and conversions are important, but they’re only part of the picture.
The real advantage of digital retail is its ability to connect shopper insights with smarter decisions, more relevant experiences and better commercial outcomes.
The real test starts after Black Friday
Black Friday success shouldn’t be measured by what happens in November alone. The bigger question is what happens next. Did new customers return? Did existing shoppers continue purchasing once discounts ended? Did the promotion encourage additional spending, or simply shift sales from one month to another?
By tracking repeat purchases, customer behaviour, profitability and category performance beyond the promotional period, retailers can build a clearer picture of what worked and where to invest next. And that’s where digital retail has another opportunity to stand out. The ability to learn from every interaction, understand what influences purchasing decisions and apply those insights to future campaigns can turn a short-term promotional event into a longer-term growth opportunity.
Black Friday isn’t simply about who offers the biggest discount. It’s about who understands their shoppers best and gives them the strongest reason to buy. Digital retail has the data, reach and ability to personalise experiences at scale. Used well, these capabilities can help brands influence decisions, attract new customers and build relationships that last beyond November.
Physical retail may have the advantage of human connection and experience. But when it comes to understanding shopper behaviour and turning insights into action, digital has a compelling case.
So, does digital retail have what it takes to win Black Friday, or will the in-store experience still have the edge?
Explore the other side of the story in our article: Black Friday: Does Physical Retail Have What It Takes to Win?
